Key takeaways
- On Cancún, the gap between floor and median reaches 74.5%. On Punta Cana, 75.5%.
- A quarter of packages sit well below the median: that is the zone to aim for.
- Checking prices once gives you no usable information.
- The spread is structural, not seasonal: it exists inside a single four-week window.
The question we get most often is not "how much does it cost" but "is this a good price". Those are two different questions, and the second one cannot be answered without a reference point.
So we measured the spread. Across 388,549 price readings collected between 11 July and 4 August 2026, here is the real scale of it, destination by destination.
Table of contents
Three destinations, the same 60 to 75% spread
| Destination | Floor | Median | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cancún / Riviera Maya | $979 | $3,839 | 74.5% |
| Punta Cana | $839 | $3,429 | 75.5% |
| Puerto Plata | $925 | $2,199 | 57.9% |
On Punta Cana, the cheapest package recorded is more than four times cheaper than the median one. These are not two different seasons or two different years: it is the same four-week window, on the same destination.
Puerto Plata, with a 57.9% spread, is the most stable of the three. That makes sense: the supply there is far smaller, so it is less dispersed. Less choice, but fewer nasty surprises.
What it means in practice
If the floor-to-median gap were 10%, the rational strategy would be to book as soon as the trip is decided. At 75% it changes completely: when you look determines more of the price than which hotel you pick.
- A price seen in isolation is not information. Without knowing where it sits in the distribution, it says nothing.
- The first quartile is the real target. On Punta Cana from Montreal, five nights, it sits at $2,129 against a $2,749 median.
- A discount advertised by a tour operator is not a real drop if the starting price was already above the median.
- Waiting forever does not work either: floor-priced inventory goes fast and does not necessarily come back.
How to spot a fake discount
An advertised discount is almost always calculated against a reference price chosen by the seller. When the real spread reaches 75%, showing "-40%" costs nothing: you just start from the top of the distribution.
- Compare against the floor price observed on the destination, not against the struck-through price.
- Check the exact length: going from 7 to 5 nights lowers the total without changing the price per night.
- Check the occupancy the price is calculated for — the most common source of error.
- Be wary of a discount on a low-supply destination: with few packages, the reference has no statistical value.
Frequently asked questions
Isn't a 75% spread just the gap between a 3-star and a 5-star?
That is part of it, but not all. Holding hotel category and length of stay constant, we still see significant variation depending on the departure date and on when the price was recorded.
Does this mean you should book last minute?
No. Floors appear three months out just as much as three weeks out. It is tracking over time that reveals them, not a calendar rule.
Over what period were these figures measured?
From 11 July to 4 August 2026, on departures from August to November 2026. It is a short window, deliberately: we keep price history for a limited time and prefer to publish what we actually measure.
We watch all-inclusive package prices departing from Canada and alert our members when a real drop appears. Our mission: make sun travel more accessible.